Posts Tagged ‘Predictions’

h1

What is a Housing Bubble? Is One Forming?

July 7, 2015

Bubble-2-KCM

The recent talk of Greece and its financial challenges has some questioning whether the U.S. could also return to the crisis we experienced in 2008. Some are looking at the rise in real estate values and wondering whether we are in the middle of another housing price bubble.

What actually is a price bubble?

Here is the definition according to Jack M. Guttentag, Professor of Finance Emeritus at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania:

“A price bubble is a rise in price based on the expectation that the price will rise. Sooner or later something happens to erode confidence in continued price increases, at which point the bubble bursts and prices drop. What makes it a price bubble is that the cause of the price increase is an expectation that the price will increase, which sooner or later must reverse itself.”

Does Professor Guttentag believe we are in another housing bubble?

In a recent article, he explained:

“My view is that we are a long way from another house price bubble. Home buyers, lenders, investors and regulators now understand that a nationwide decline in house prices is possible — because we recently lived through one.”

What are home prices doing?

Though home values are continuing to appreciate, the acceleration of the increases has slowed to year-over-year numbers which reflect a healthy housing market. Here is a chart showing year-over-year appreciation since January of last year:

Case-Shiller

We can see that appreciation rates have dropped from double digit numbers to more normal rates of 5% or lower.

Bottom Line

We think Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal put it best in a recent tweet:

“Predictions of a new national home price bubble look unfounded for now, according to data.”

h1

Happy New Year

December 31, 2011

Image

I am so happy to still be in the business of selling real estate in Central Florida. No one can predict the future, not me, not the Mayans, and certainly no one from Cassadega. But it doesn’t matter because we need to remember to live fully in the present.

It has been a challenging few years in real estate and whether the market has bottomed or not…I see brighter days ahead. I look forward to sharing the good news with you.

HAPPY NEW YEAR friends and here’s to a great future.

h1

What the future holds…

May 17, 2011

I love the saying “You don’t what the future holds, but you know who holds the future” and I truly believe that.

I think back to a few years ago when real estate was flying high and the good times seemed as if they would never end.  Of course, I knew that couldn’t be true because real estate simply couldn’t stay at that pace.

And so it is now…vastly different and at a changed pace. But we have to remember that it won’t stay this way forever. There are days when I waiver between highs and lows. But then I remember that my parents taught me to take the HIGH road. To stay in the lows is to sink into despair and a person of faith knows that if you truly believe – there is always hope. A person of faith may have a bad moment – but we don’t have a bad day because each day is too precious to waste.

So today we will go through the day, step by step and see where it leads us. As for me, all roads lead to home and that’s always a good thing.

h1

Generational real estate selling and other minsinformation.

April 28, 2011

We live in a time when people want quick answers and quick resolutions to all their questions. How many times a day do you see articles with “Five ways to Happiness” or “Seven steps to selling your home”? Here’s a fact: there aren’t any quick or fast steps to doing anything. It’s just the use of a catch phrase to get your attention. Imagine how great life would be if we could solve things in three easy steps? It just not that simple.

One of the main things I see is that realtors are being misled to believe that their clients are now internet social butterflies and that so much business is done via the web. This is simply not true. While more than 80% may look on the web for a home; the majority of individuals still rely on word-of-mouth or personal relationships to find a realtor to assist them. For instance, a recent fact published by the American Affluence Research Center reflects that only 12.5% of affluent clients even use social media. That’s not very good odds for those seeking to attract the luxury market via the web, through Facebook or other social networking venues.

The other common mistake I see in today’s real estate world is labeling clients. Of course, you know about “boomers” but now we have the newest which is the Millenial generation. The Millenial Generation was born between 1977 and 1998 and has approximately 75 million members. REALTORS are being led to believe that this age group is the next big wave of buyers. Let me assure you – I don’t see this happening. Why? Because I personally have millenials (with college degrees) living under my roof and they can’t find jobs that pay enough to afford a home. Fact: College degrees don’t guarantee a high-paying job thereby making home ownership affordable. I have friends who also have children who graduated college, who are hard-working and driven BUT who are also waiting tables and working part-time at corporations just to get an opportunity for full-time employment. Where do they live? At home with their parents! In addition, many of my friends have not only their grown children living at home but also their parents. These are the people who are helping to support the Millenials. I wish more people would write about that fact.

Millenials and Gen “X” and “Y” are watching the world economy in turmoil and they are scared for their future. I’m not sure they see the value in home ownership and they may just wait it out for a few years and see how the United States government (and lending instituions) respond to our economic crisis.

What is factual? At the end of the day it is still about relationships. Get out from behind your computer and meet people. Stay in touch with friends and former clients. While I personally have a blog, Facebook page and I tweet like a maniac, I do so for fun. I don’t expect business to boom because I do all my social networking. People will buy homes because they need a place to live. But as for me – know any investors or better yet – let’s do lunch?

h1

It’s a New Year – Happy 2011

December 31, 2010

 

 

I know it is only Dec. 30th but this is always the official start of my New Year. Why? Because it is the birthday of my first child, my daughter, Taylor. So my New Year begins now and I look forward to it every year. It’s a reminder that while work and things are important in life – they aren’t the MOST important thing. The most important things can’t be bought. They are the gifts of love, faith, laughter, kindness and joy. Our families bless us daily and give us just a brief glimpse of what heaven must look like. 

So while I have some predictions for the New Year in real estate, my biggest prediction is for another year of happiness with a wonderful family and a loving God. I wish the same for you. 

HAPPY NEW YEAR and Happy Birthday Taylor! 

Cheers, Linda

h1

2010 Real Estate Predictions – No Crystal Ball

January 6, 2010

Where will housing be this coming year? That’s a great question and I have some predictions. Some of them are painful and some of them just might come true – let’s see what you think.

1. Home prices – Home prices will continue to fall in the coming year.  This is almost a certainty. With a backlog of foreclosures and short sales waiting on the market, we will see a decrease in pricing. However, if you discount the unrealistic pricing in the 2003-2005 years, homes are actually selling at fair market value – it’s just not the value you thought or anticipated. So many people borrowed against their inflated equity which resulted in their homes being worth less than their mortgages. People who didn’t over-borrow will be just fine.

2. Foreclosures – watch for this debacle to continue and grow before it starts to wind down by the end of the year. I know people still living in homes where they have not made mortgage payments for over a year. The banks are taking their “time” working these homes through the system – if they foreclosed on all the outstanding bad loans – it would send shock waves through our economy and Wall Street. You will see high-end foreclosures with homes over $700,000 taking a big hit. Builders are especially affected and many will not be able to stay in business.

3. Banks – Lending institutions now basically control everything. While they had a stronghold on real estate in the past – they dictate price in the future. Many homes today are under-appraised to ensure that the bank is mortgaging a home that is below fair market value. It’s a new tactic. In addition, banks borrowed a LOT of money from the federal government (taxpayers) to stabilize their banks BUT THEY DID NOT GIVE LOANS TO THE PUBLIC AND DID NOT RENEGOTIATE TERMS OF OUTSTANDING DEBT NOR DID THEY AGREE TO MANY SHORT SALES. It is still a startling statistic that only 1 in 10 short sales actually occur. Banks are not cooperating and as a further insult – they gave the money they borrowed (after strengthening their banks through investments) back to the federal government to avoid federal oversight. In so doing, they guaranteed themselves large bonuses at the end of the year. I am constantly shocked that our elected officials haven’t been outraged at this practice. Banks= greed.

4. Who’s Buying? – First time homebuyers and move up buyers represent the strongest potential for purchase in the coming year. The thing to consider is that they will stay in the FHA price ranges which mean if your home is under $360,000, you have a strong chance of selling your home. If your home is under $200,000 – you may have an even better chance. If you are a buyer – BUY A HOME NOW – the prices won’t be this low again after the year ends. 2010 is THE TIME TO BUY if you are a buyer and are credit-worthy.

5. Variables. I have often said – as the housing industry goes – so goes the economy. This is still true. These past two years are proof that the housing market affects every facet of our economy from families eating at restaurants to lumber sales. There will be homes selling and there is increased buyer traffic. 2010 will most certainly see an upswing in purchasing power for buyers and it will be a good year for real estate. So many things hinge on banks giving out home loans and creation of new jobs. If the job market improves then we are REALLY going to see a strengthening of the sales in Florida and in the United States. Job uncertainty creates fear and fear is the worst thing that can happen when it is time to sell a home.

6. What will sell – Home buyers still want a home that requires little to no repair or renovation. The home that reflects tender love and care is going to fly off the market. So many homes today are in disrepair and the foreclosure market is not always a bargain hunters dream when you mix in the cost for renovation. But the homeowner who maintains their home, shows it beautifully and has it staged will see eager buyers. Of course, the lower price points will be the most desirable. Smaller is becoming the new “hot” home.

Everyone would like to know how much longer? What will it take to turn our economy? What do I think about our government? These are all good questions and I would encourage you to be ACTIVE and take a strong interest in your elected officials in Congress. It really does make a difference. While health insurance is a good thing – it’s not THE MOST IMPORTANT thing in the lives of average citizens at this time. AMERICANS NEED JOBS and they need the jobs NOW.  I believe that the average American understands this well – let’s hope our elected officials wake up in time to save our nation. I’m prepared to vote and campaign for anyone who understands this.

2010 is going to be a year of change and I think it will change for the better. I’ll know I’ll keep blogging about it.

h1

Predicting the Future

November 11, 2009

 

I’m not a true prognosticator but I am a person who looks to the future and frankly, things are looking good to me.

When I started selling real estate, it was a “calling” for me and a service to my clients. Somewhere it became a little bit (just a tad) about awards and dollar volumes and I lost something. Not anymore.

The good thing about the new world order in the real estate market is the chance for me to again realize that helping people buy a home, especially in today’s market, is VERY rewarding on so many levels. The challenges are extraordinary but the satisfaction of helping people navigate the process is fantastic. I LOVE my job.

It’s not easy to sell real estate – but it’s still the best job in the world and you really don’t need a crystal ball to see this clearly!